to tell the difference between making an observation and making an inference. Observation and Experiment is a valuable resource for anyone with a serious interest in the empirical study of human health, behavior, and well-being. Inference guesses based on evidence (observations and prior knowledge). Readers gain an understanding of the design and interpretation of randomized trials, the ways they differ from observational studies, and the techniques used to remove, investigate, and appraise bias in observational studies. Observation is an extension of our senses when we observe, we record what is seen, smelled, tasted, heard, and touched. To illustrate, Rosenbaum draws examples from clinical medicine, economics, public health, epidemiology, clinical psychology, and psychiatry. Observation is more of recording or remarking an event or phenomena, whereas an inference is what you make of that observation or what conclusion you draw from. Teaching notes and lesson on Observation and Inference, plus a two-part activity practicing the skills of prediction and inference. But because randomized trials are not always practical or ethical, many causal questions are investigated in nonrandomized observational studies. Some causal questions can be studied in randomized trials in which coin flips assign individuals to treatments. Using minimal mathematics and statistics, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through scientific examples that make complex ideas concrete and abstract principles accessible. Observation and Experiment is an introduction to causal inference from one of the field’s leading scholars.
Investigators once confidently claimed that hormone replacement therapy reduces the risk of heart disease but today investigators confidently claim it raises that risk. Some say that raising the minimum wage decreases inequality while others say it increases unemployment. Yet we are also told that alcohol can cause life-threatening cancer and that pregnant women should abstain from drinking.
A daily glass of wine prolongs life, or so we are told. In the daily news and the scientific literature, we are faced with conflicting claims about the effects caused by some treatments, behaviors, and policies.
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